1.8 million fixed deals end this year, and rates are rising, not falling

As at 14 September 2026. Rates quoted are market averages and move daily, treat them as a reference point, not a quote.

Around 1.8 million fixed-rate mortgages come to an end during 2026, according to UK Finance. A large share of them were taken out in 2021, when five-year fixes were available at around 2.6%.

There is nothing at 2.6% to move to.

Where rates actually are

Fixed rates have been drifting upwards through late summer. Moneyfacts data for 7 September 2026:

Those are averages across the whole market, including high loan-to-value deals. If you have decent equity the picture is better: at 75% LTV, average rates sit nearer 5.29% for a two-year fix and 5.31% for a five-year, and the big six lenders average closer to 4.77% and 4.80% respectively. Trackers and discounts start lower again, from around 3.99% on initial rates.

The standard variable rate is where the damage is: averaging 7.34% across all lenders, and about 6.49% among the big six.

Why they're going up when Bank Rate isn't

Fixed mortgage rates are priced off swap rates, not Bank Rate. Swaps reflect what the market expects rates to do over the next two or five years, and they've risen sharply over the past month.

Rachel Springall at Moneyfacts put it directly: swap rates are much higher than they were a month ago and are a key influence on how lenders price fixed-rate mortgages, with pricing margins under pressure from renewed volatility linked to geopolitical tension.

Nicholas Mendes at John Charcol flagged the pattern that matters: what's notable now is not one lender making an isolated move, but a growing number repricing in the same direction. Isolated repricing is noise. Coordinated repricing is a trend.

What the increase looks like

The Bank of England's own analysis: close to one million households face monthly payment increases of at least £500 as they refinance, over £6,000 a year. A further two million face increases between £200 and £499 a month.

Worked example. £250,000 over 25 years, capital and interest:

From a 2021 five-year fix to today's average two-year fix is roughly £420 a month. Letting it lapse onto an SVR instead makes it nearly £690.

That SVR gap is the avoidable part. Moneyfacts' estimate is that borrowers sitting on a standard variable rate could save over £5,000 a year by switching to a fixed deal. It is the single largest, easiest saving available in the UK mortgage market, and hundreds of thousands of people are leaving it on the table because switching feels like a chore.

What to do, in order

Six months before your deal ends, secure a rate. Most lenders will hold an offer for three to six months. If rates fall before you complete, you can usually switch to the better deal. If they rise, you're protected. There is very little downside to doing this early, and the current direction of travel makes it more valuable than usual.

Then decide: product transfer or full remortgage. A product transfer with your existing lender is fast, usually requires no new affordability assessment, and involves minimal paperwork. A remortgage to a new lender opens the whole market and is often cheaper, but it's a full application. The right answer depends on the gap between the two rates and on whether your circumstances would survive fresh underwriting. If your income has changed, or you've become self-employed, or there's been a credit event, a product transfer can be the safer route even at a slightly worse rate. That's a judgement call worth making deliberately.

Two years or five? Two-year and five-year averages are now within about five basis points of each other, which is unusual. Normally you pay a premium for the longer certainty. With the pricing gap that narrow, the decision is about your life rather than the rate: how likely are you to move, need to borrow more, or want to overpay beyond the allowance? Early repayment charges on a five-year deal are the real cost of being wrong.

Check the total cost, not the rate. An arrangement fee of £1,499 on a £150,000 loan adds roughly 0.2% a year over five years. Headline-rate comparisons routinely pick the wrong product.

If money is genuinely tight, say so early. Extending the term, moving temporarily to interest-only, or a part-and-part arrangement are all legitimate options, and lenders are obliged to engage with borrowers in difficulty. They work far better as a plan made three months out than as a response to a missed payment.

The context on lending

UK Finance projects gross mortgage lending of around £300 billion in 2026, with remortgaging accounting for roughly £77 billion, a 10% increase in remortgage activity year on year. Volume that high means lender service times stretch. Starting early isn't just about the rate.