Bank Rate held at 3.75%, and three MPC members now want it higher

As at 24 August 2026. The next MPC decision is 17 September.

The headline hasn't moved since the spring: Bank Rate is 3.75%, where it has sat since the Monetary Policy Committee's meeting on 30 July 2026, a fifth consecutive hold.

The headline is the least interesting part of the story.

The vote is the thing to watch

July's decision went 6 to 3. Six members backed holding at 3.75%. Three, Huw Pill, Megan Greene and Catherine Mann, voted to raise the rate to 4%. That's up from two dissenters at the previous meeting.

Commentators called it a "hawkish hold", and the label fits. The direction of travel inside the committee has reversed. Twelve months ago the argument was about how quickly to cut. Now it's about whether the next move is up.

Why the mood changed

Inflation. CPI rose to 2.9% in July 2026, up from 2.6% in June and the highest reading in four months. The main driver was energy costs, pushed up by tensions in the Middle East, which is exactly the kind of shock the Bank can't do much about with interest rates, but also exactly the kind that keeps a committee from cutting.

Governor Andrew Bailey has been careful to say that rate rises are "not inevitable" and that the committee will respond to the data as it arrives. That's a genuine caveat, not a formality. But it is a long way from the language of a central bank preparing to ease.

What the market thinks happens next

Two slightly different pictures, and both are worth knowing:

• Economists are close to unanimous on the short term. Around 90% of those surveyed expect Bank Rate to still be 3.75% at the end of 2026.
• Financial markets are pricing something firmer, a 0.25 percentage point rise by the end of this year, and two further rises during 2027.

For the 17 September meeting itself, a hold is the overwhelming expectation. A cut is not seriously on the table.

What this actually means for your mortgage

Three different answers, depending on where you sit.

If you're on a tracker or a discount. Your rate is pinned to Bank Rate, so nothing changes on 17 September if the committee holds. The question worth asking is what happens if markets are right and Bank Rate goes to 4%. On a £250,000 tracker, a quarter-point rise is about £34 a month. That's survivable for most people. The point of asking is to decide in advance, not in a panic.

If you're on a fixed rate. Nothing changes at all until your deal ends. What matters is what fixed rates look like on the day you come to remortgage, and those are set by swap rates, not Bank Rate directly. More on that below.

If you're on your lender's standard variable rate. This is the expensive place to be, and it has nothing to do with what the MPC decides. Average SVRs are running around 7.34% across all lenders, and about 6.49% among the big six. Against a fixed rate in the fives, that gap is worth thousands a year. If you're sitting on an SVR because your deal lapsed and you didn't get round to it, that's the single most valuable hour of admin available to you right now.

The part people get wrong

Bank Rate does not set fixed mortgage rates. Fixed rates are priced off swap rates, the cost to a lender of buying certainty about future funding, and swaps move on expectations, not on decisions.

Which is why fixed rates have been drifting up over the past month even though Bank Rate hasn't moved at all. Swap rates are meaningfully higher than they were in early August, and lenders have been repricing accordingly. A hold on 17 September will not, on its own, bring fixed rates down. If the market's expectation of future rates softens, that will.

What I'd do this month

If your deal ends within the next six months, get an offer secured now. Most lenders will let you hold a rate for three to six months and switch to something better if rates fall before completion. That's a free option: you take the protection and keep the upside.

If your deal has more than a year to run, there's nothing to do except know your numbers: your current rate, your end date, and what the payment looks like at 5.5% and at 6%. Knowing that in advance turns a shock into a plan.